{"id":6187,"date":"2020-10-14T21:26:46","date_gmt":"2020-10-15T00:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/?p=6187"},"modified":"2025-02-02T13:28:56","modified_gmt":"2025-02-02T16:28:56","slug":"um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/","title":{"rendered":"Um olhar estat\u00edstico do Covid-19 no Brasil"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\u00a0 Em artigos pr\u00e9vios mostramos ferramentas que podiam ser usadas para monitorar a situa\u00e7\u00e3o da COVID-19. Neste artigo mostramos a situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual da evolu\u00e7\u00e3o de infectados e mortes no Brasil at\u00e9 12\/set\/2020.<\/p>

Respondemos \u00e0s quest\u00f5es:<\/p>

\u2981 A curva de infectados est\u00e1 crescendo, estabilizou ou est\u00e1 caindo?<\/strong><\/p>

\u2981 A curva de mortes est\u00e1 crescendo, estabilizou ou est\u00e1 caindo?<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0 Na figura 1 se mostra a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o de n\u00famero de infectados. O efeito de sobe e desce se deve ao menor n\u00famero de casos registrados nos dias domingo e 2\u00aa.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figura 1 \u2013 N\u00famero di\u00e1rio de infectados Brasil<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0 Conforme um artigo anterior de Manoel Telhada, a detec\u00e7\u00e3o da queda na tend\u00eancia pode ser determinada comparando as m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 7 e 21 dias. A Figura 2 tem tr\u00eas s\u00e9ries:<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de infectados di\u00e1rios (id\u00eantica \u00e0 Figura 1).<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 7 dias (laranja, MM7).<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 21 dias (cinza, MM21).<\/p>

\u00a0 Interprete a Figura 2 da seguinte forma:<\/p>

\u2981 H\u00e1 uma tend\u00eancia crescente quando a curva MM7 est\u00e1 por cima da MM21.<\/p>

\u2981 H\u00e1 uma tend\u00eancia decrescente quando a curva MM7 est\u00e1 por baixo da MM21.<\/p>

\u00a0 Observa-se que j\u00e1 houve v\u00e1rios per\u00edodos com a curva MM7 por baixo da MM21. Se fazemos a diferen\u00e7a MM7 \u2013 MM21, pode-se concluir que a s\u00e9rie est\u00e1 em queda quando houver 10 pontos seguidos com dados negativos (Figura 3). Quando a Figura 3 mostra uma s\u00e9rie laranja \u00e9 que j\u00e1 houve pelo menos 10 pontos abaixo negativos (ou seja, s\u00e9rie em queda). No dia 12\/9 se observam somente 6 pontos abaixo<\/p><\/div>

de zero, mas claramente h\u00e1 tend\u00eancia de queda.<\/p><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figura 2 \u2013 Infectados di\u00e1rios Brasil, m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 7 dias e m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 21 dias<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Figura 3 \u2013 Infectados di\u00e1rios Brasil, m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 7 - m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 21 dias<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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A Figura 4 tem tr\u00eas s\u00e9ries:<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de mortes di\u00e1rias.<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 7 dias (laranja, MM7).<\/p>

\u2981 Curva de m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 21 dias (cinza, MM21).<\/p>

Interprete a Figura 4 da mesma<\/p>

fora que a Figura 2:<\/p>

\u2981 H\u00e1 uma tend\u00eancia crescente quando a curva MM7 est\u00e1 por cima da MM21.<\/p>

\u2981 H\u00e1 uma tend\u00eancia decrescente quando a curva MM7 est\u00e1 por baixo da MM21.<\/p>

\u00a0Observa-se que j\u00e1 houve v\u00e1rios per\u00edodos com a curva MM7 por baixo da MM21. Se fazemos a diferen\u00e7a MM7 \u2013 MM21, pode-se concluir que a s\u00e9rie est\u00e1 em queda quando houver 10 pontos seguidos com dados negativos (Figura 5). A Figura 5 mostra que a s\u00e9rie de mortes di\u00e1rias est\u00e1 em queda de forma mais n\u00edtida que a s\u00e9rie de infectados.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figura 4 \u2013 Mortes di\u00e1rias Brasil, m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 7 dias e m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 21 dias<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Figura 5 \u2013 Mortes di\u00e1rias Brasil, m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 7 - dias e m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel 21 dias<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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Conclus\u00e3o final<\/b><\/h5>

\u00a0 A Figura 6 mostra duas s\u00e9ries sobrepostas:<\/p>

\u2981 Infectados acumulados (eixo y da esquerda)<\/p>

\u2981 Mortes acumuladas (eixo y da direita).<\/p>

\u00a0 Fica evidente que estamos lidando melhor com as mortes do que com a propaga\u00e7\u00e3o de infectados: a taxa de crescimento dos infectados \u00e9 maior que a taxa de crescimento das mortes.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Figura 6 \u2013 Curvas de infectados acumulados (azul) e mortes acumuladas (laranja) Brasil<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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\u00a0 Esperamos que as ideias apresentadas possam ser \u00fateis para aplicar em fen\u00f4menos do seu dia a dia. Caso tenha d\u00favidas ou queira manifestar sua opini\u00e3o sobre o artigo, deixe o seu coment\u00e1rio abaixo.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"carlos\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Carlos Domenech<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Master Black Belt, consultor e CEO da MI Domenech<\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Leia mais<\/a><\/h2>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
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\"Fazendo<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tFazendo funcionar o Pensamento Estat\u00edstico – Parte 2\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t31 de janeiro de 2025\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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H\u00e1 tr\u00eas artigos sobre Pensamento Estat\u00edstico:\u00a0 Parte I. Conceitos sobre Pensamento Estat\u00edstico: explica os tr\u00eas princ\u00edpios que comp\u00f5em o pensar estatisticamente.\u00a0 Parte II. Fazendo funcionar<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\tSAIBA MAIS \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\"\"<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tConceitos do Pensamento Estat\u00edstico – Parte 1\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t31 de janeiro de 2025\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t

H\u00e1 tr\u00eas artigos sobre Pensamento Estat\u00edstico:\u00a0 Parte I. Conceitos sobre Pensamento Estat\u00edstico: explica os tr\u00eas princ\u00edpios que comp\u00f5em o pensar estatisticamente.\u00a0 Parte II. Fazendo funcionar<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\tSAIBA MAIS \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\"Sorrindo<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tSorrindo com LSS e DFLSS Estilo Startup (Curva do sorriso)\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t15 de janeiro de 2025\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t

\u00a0 \u00a0A vida das empresas n\u00e3o \u00e9 moleza neste mundo atual de incertezas e mudan\u00e7as aceleradas. A \u00fanica certeza \u00e9 que a batalha pelos clientes<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\tSAIBA MAIS \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\"Brainstorming<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tBrainstorming 2.0: turbine sua criatividade e produza mais ideias!\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t20 de dezembro de 2024\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t

\u00a0 Voc\u00ea j\u00e1 deve ter participado de reuni\u00f5es gerenciais ou reuni\u00f5es de grupos de melhoria nas quais se apresenta um problema e se solicitam ideias<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\tSAIBA MAIS \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\"\"<\/div>\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\tMudan\u00e7a Cultural e Melhoria Cont\u00ednua\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t19 de novembro de 2024\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t

Uma afirma\u00e7\u00e3o comum sobre mudan\u00e7a cultural \u00e9 que leva tempo. As vezes se menciona que se precisa de pelo menos 10 anos para que a<\/p>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\tSAIBA MAIS \u00bb\t\t<\/a>\n\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/article>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Em artigos pr\u00e9vios mostramos ferramentas que podiam ser usadas para monitorar a situa\u00e7\u00e3o da COVID-19. Neste artigo mostramos a situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual da evolu\u00e7\u00e3o de infectados e mortes no Brasil at\u00e9 12\/set\/2020. Respondemos \u00e0s quest\u00f5es: \u2981 A curva de infectados est\u00e1 crescendo, estabilizou ou est\u00e1 caindo? \u2981 A curva de mortes est\u00e1 crescendo, estabilizou ou […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[32],"tags":[82,37],"yoast_head":"\nUm olhar estat\u00edstico do Covid-19 no Brasil - MI Domenech<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Um olhar estat\u00edstico em artigos pr\u00e9vios mostram ferramentas que podiam ser usadas para monitorar a situa\u00e7\u00e3o da covid-19 no Brasil.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Um olhar estat\u00edstico do Covid-19 no Brasil - MI Domenech\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Um olhar estat\u00edstico em artigos pr\u00e9vios mostram ferramentas que podiam ser usadas para monitorar a situa\u00e7\u00e3o da covid-19 no Brasil.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MI Domenech\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/midomenechleanseissigma\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-15T00:26:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-02T16:28:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Um-olhar-estatistico-do-Covid-19-no-Brasil.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1145\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos Domenech\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carlos Domenech\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carlos Domenech\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/#\/schema\/person\/c4976b74e4d0b85d2bf27985ac75ffcf\"},\"headline\":\"Um olhar estat\u00edstico do Covid-19 no Brasil\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-15T00:26:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-02-02T16:28:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\"},\"wordCount\":592,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Covid 19\",\"estat\u00edstica\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Estat\u00edstica\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.midomenech.com.br\/um-olhar-estatistico-do-covid-no-brasil\/\",\"name\":\"Um olhar estat\u00edstico do Covid-19 no Brasil - 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